Smart Systems are based on Models

Smart systems (for the purposes of these notes) are systems that sense what is going on in their environments and respond effectively. Animals and human organizations are smart systems since they sense and respond to their environments. These notes discuss information technologies that allow people and organizations to sense activity anywhere in the world and to respond anywhere.

MODELS

Smart systems are based on models of their environments. Even a bacterium, as it swims towards its food, has an implicit model of its environment – its model says that a certain chemical gradient implies that food is probably available in that direction. The smart energy grid is based on a model of generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption of electricity.

MODELS AND REALITY

Smart systems must use models because no human-designed system can have a complete representation of its environment; the model may be implicit or explicit, but every smart system is based on a model. Designers of smart systems must acknowledge that their models may misrepresent or ignore critical features of reality. Whether smart systems deal with options trading, baggage handling, medical alerts or earthquake response, smart system vendors and their customers should be aware of the premises upon which a smart system is based.

IMPACT OF MODELS

The model determines what sensors are used and where they are placed, how measured data is analyzed to determine appropriate responses, and the types and locations of responders. When an organization implements a smart system or acquires one from a vendor, the organization uses (possibly implicit) cost-benefit analyses based on models of the system and its environment. Models, implicit or explicit, have a deep impact because they influence whether a smart system is implemented or not. But, most people are not aware of the pervasive role of models in smart systems.

PROBABILISTIC MODELS AND RARE EVENTS

In many cases, models of the environment are probabilistic. Smart systems help organizations exploit opportunities and protect against threats; they are most useful when they help exploit unusually good opportunities and protect against unusually severe threats. But, unusual events are rare and generally don’t occur in a predetermined way. So, most models of smart systems and their environments are fundamentally probabilistic, and some models deal with probabilities of rare events. Decision-making under uncertainty, when the uncertainty is about rare events, is difficult; perforce, analyses and models of smart systems that respond to rare, but very critical events, are complex.

ADAPTIVE MODELS

Designers may change models on which their systems are predicated, and so smart systems may be changed as well. Some systems may use machine learning to adapt to changes in their environments automatically; but even so, the process of machine learning is itself based on a model. As in all human endeavors based on models of reality, users of smart systems should check whether the assumptions upon which smart-system models are predicated are likely to remain valid in the future.

MODELS ARE GOOD; SMART SYSTEMS ARE GOOD

None of the ideas on this page are new – they have been propounded for decades by control theorists, and operations researchers studying decision making under uncertainty. What is new, however, is the variety of applications of smart systems ranging from smart roads to ensuring sustainable fish habitats. Smart systems amplify our human ability to sense and respond effectively and intelligently to our world. The use of models is necessary and good. The homo sapiens species is the modeling species – to be sapient is to build abstractions, i.e., models. Vendors and users of smart systems should remain aware of the differences between models and reality, and should continue to verify that their models retain fidelity.

Smart Systems Sense and Respond

Organizations sense and respond to their environments

Living things thrive if they sense what is going on in their environments and respond effectively. A bacterium that doesn't sense the presence of food in its vicinity will perish. A zebra that runs away frequently from non-threats will die of exhaustion, and one that doesn't run away from a real threat will die too. Effective sense and response are characteristic of successful organisms and organizations. Smart systems, for the purposes of these notes, are systems integrated with information technologies that help us sense and respond better.

Collective sense and response

Organizations sense and respond collectively. Lions in a pride signal each other and respond collaboratively when they hunt. People in companies collaborate to deal with unexpected events such as sudden changes in revenue. Countries deal with crises such as hurricanes by harnessing capabilities of local governments, corporations, charities and individuals. Smart systems help groups to sense and respond cooperatively.

Roles of Sympathetic and Parasympathetic Nervous Systems in Sense and Response

Mammals, including humans, sense and respond by using the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems. The sympathetic nervous system mediates the "fight or flight" response. When an animal senses prey or aggressors, its sympathetic nervous system triggers intense responses. By contrast, the parasympathetic nervous system helps manage ongoing functions such as digestion - for example, it senses food in the mouth and controls secretion of salivary glands. The sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems are complementary; animals need all their resources to fight or fly as the need arises, and they must also control routine activity. Smart systems improve an organization's sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems; they are used to sense and respond to both unusual situations and routine activities. For example, RFID (radio frequency ID) tags on bags helps routine transfer of bags to and from planes in airports, but baggage-handling systems also help isolate dangerous cargo.

Sense and respond anywhere, anytime, with anybody, in fractions of a second

When our ancestors hunted millennia ago their hunting parties sensed and responded to threats and opportunities. They saw as far as the eye can see. Today systems allow us to sense activity deep in the oceans and far out into space. Our ancestors threw spears as far as their muscles would let them. Today our responses reach across the globe: traders in London respond to conditions in Shanghai to buy stock on the New York stock exchange. Our ancestors hunted during the day while they could see. Today we work or play around the clock. We sense and respond to our environments just as our prehistoric ancestors did; however, information systems have amplified our sense and response capability many thousand fold - we sense and respond anywhere on the planet, at any time, with anybody, with greater accuracy, and in seconds.

The next two decades will see development of technologies that continue amplify our abilities to sense and respond dramatically.